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Will your Meta ads budget make money?
Before you spend a cent on Facebook and Instagram ads, put in your spend cap, your margin and what you expect a click to cost. This works out the daily budget, the return you need just to break even, and what your own assumptions say you will make or lose.
Losing money at these assumptions: each order leaves $20.00 of margin and costs about $23.33 in ads.
The budget
What you need to break even
What your assumptions say
This is a plan built from your numbers, not a forecast of what Meta will deliver. It is worth what the cost per click and the conversion rate are worth, and those two are the guesses.
How it is calculated
There is no model here and nothing is hidden. The whole planner is these lines:
- Daily budget = monthly spend cap ÷ 30, split into prospecting and retargeting by the share you choose.
- Break-even ROAS = 1 ÷ gross margin. At that ROAS the margin on the sales pays for the ads and nothing more.
- Most you can pay per order = average order value × gross margin.
- Clicks = spend cap ÷ cost per click. Orders = clicks × conversion rate.
- Revenue = orders × average order value. Expected ROAS = revenue ÷ spend cap.
- Profit after ad spend = revenue × gross margin − spend cap.
- Conversion rate you would need = the orders that break even (spend ÷ most you can pay per order) ÷ clicks.
The verdict calls the plan break-even when the profit is within 5% of the spend either way, profitable above that and losing below it.
What it assumes, stated plainly
- That you spend the whole cap and every click costs the same. Real costs move from day to day and with every change to the ad.
- That prospecting and retargeting cost and convert the same. They rarely do, so read the split as how to divide the money, not as a prediction for each half.
- That an order happens in the same month as the click and nobody buys again later. Repeat purchases are left out, which makes the result cautious for a store people come back to.
- That your gross margin already covers product cost and shipping. If it does not, the break-even ROAS is higher than shown.
When the ad works, someone has to answer
A click from an ad that opens WhatsApp or an Instagram DM is a person waiting for a reply. Super Agent answers those chats 24/7. It can also propose a segmentation and budget plan for your ads under a hard spend cap you set — it does not launch ads on Meta for you.
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Questions
- What is a break-even ROAS?
- It is the return on ad spend at which the gross margin on the sales your ads bring in exactly pays for the ads. It equals 1 divided by your gross margin: at a 40% margin you need 2.5 in revenue for every 1 you spend just to break even. Below that, every sale the ads produce costs more than it earns.
- Are the default cost per click and conversion rate typical?
- No. They are example values so the page has a worked example, not benchmarks. Cost per click changes with the country, the audience, the season and the ad itself, and the conversion rate depends on your store and your offer. Replace them with the numbers from your own Ads Manager and your store as soon as you have them.
- Why split the budget between prospecting and retargeting?
- Prospecting shows ads to people who have never heard of you; retargeting shows them to people who already visited your store or messaged you. This planner only divides the daily budget between the two. It applies the same cost per click and conversion rate to both, so the split does not change the expected result here.
- Where does my data go?
- Nowhere. The arithmetic runs in your browser. Nothing you type is sent to us, stored, or needed to see the result, and there is no signup.
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